Abavelisi abahamba phambili beetshiphu zememori basebenza nzima ukoyisa ubusika obubandayo.I-Samsung Electronics, i-SK Hynix kunye neMicron zinciphisa imveliso, zijongana neengxaki ze-inventory, zigcina inkcitho eyinkunzi, kunye nokulibazisa inkqubela phambili yetekhnoloji ephucukileyo yokumelana nemfuno ebuthathaka yememori.“Sikwixesha lokuhla kwengeniso”.Ngo-Oktobha 27, i-Samsung Electronics yatshela abatyali-mali kwintlanganiso yengxelo yemali yekota yesithathu ukuba, ukongeza, uluhlu lwempahla lwenkampani lwanda ngokukhawuleza kwikota yesithathu.
Inkumbulo lelona sebe liphezulu kwimarike ye-semiconductor, enendawo yentengiso emalunga ne-160 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2021. Inokubonwa kuyo yonke indawo kwiimveliso ze-elektroniki.Yimveliso esemgangathweni ekhule kakhulu kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe.Ishishini linexesha elicacileyo kunye notshintsho kwi-inventri, imfuno, kunye nomthamo.Imveliso kunye nenzuzo yabavelisi batshintsha kakhulu ngokuguquguquka okujikelezayo kweshishini.
Ngokophando lwe-TrendForce Jibang Consulting, izinga lokukhula kwemarike ye-NAND ngo-2022 iya kuba yi-23.2% kuphela, elona zinga lokukhula liphantsi kwiminyaka eyi-8 yakutshanje;Izinga lokukhula kwememori (i-DRAM) yi-19% kuphela, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke iyancipha ukuya kwi-14.1% ngo-2023.
UJeffrey Mathews, umhlalutyi ophezulu weenkonzo zetekhnoloji yecandelo leefowuni zeselfowuni kwi-Strategy Analytics, uxelele iintatheli ukuba ukuthengiswa ngokugqithisileyo kweemarike kuqhube ngamandla umjikelo wokuhla, okusesona sizathu siphambili samaxabiso aphantsi e-DRAM kunye ne-NAND.Ngo-2021, abavelisi baya kuba nethemba malunga nokwandiswa kwemveliso.I-NAND kunye ne-DRAM isaza kunqongophala.Njengoko icala lemfuno liqala ukwehla ngo-2022, imakethi iya kuba yintengiso egqithisileyo.Enye i-SK Hynix yathi kwikota yesithathu ingxelo yezemali ukuba imfuno ye-DRAM kunye neemveliso ze-NAND zazicolile, kwaye zombini intengiso kunye namaxabiso ehlile.
U-Sravan Kundojjala, umlawuli wecandelo leefowuni eziphathwayo iinkonzo zobugcisa ze-Strategy Analytics, uxelele iintatheli ukuba ukudodobala kokugqibela kwenzeka ngo-2019, xa ingeniso kunye nenkcitho yemali yazo zonke izityalo zememori yehla kakhulu, kwaye intengiso ebuthathaka yathatha iikota ezimbini ngaphambi kokuba iphume.Kukho ukufana phakathi kuka-2022 kunye no-2019, kodwa ngeli xesha uhlengahlengiso lubonakala ngathi lukhulu.
UJeffrey Mathews uthe lo mjikelo ukwachatshazelwa yimfuno ephantsi, ukudodobala koqoqosho kunye nokungavisisani kwezopolitiko.Imfuno yee-smartphones kunye neePC, abaqhubi abaphambili bememori iminyaka emininzi, ibuthathaka kakhulu kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ihlale kude kube ngu-2023.
I-Samsung Electronics yathi kwizixhobo eziphathwayo, imfuno inokuthi ihlale ibuthathaka kwaye icothe kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ozayo, kwaye ukuzithemba kwabathengi kuya kuhlala kuphantsi phantsi kweempembelelo zobuthathaka bonyaka.Kwi-PC, uluhlu oluqokelelweyo ngenxa yokuthengisa okuphantsi luya kuphelelwa kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ozayo, kwaye kunokwenzeka ukubona ukubuyiswa okukhulu kwimfuno.Inkampani iya kuqhubeka igxininisa ukuba ingaba i-macro-economy ingazinzisa kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka ozayo kunye neempawu zokubuyisela ishishini.
USravan Kundojjala uthe iziko ledatha, imoto, ishishini, ubukrelekrele bokwenziwa kunye neendawo zenethiwekhi zibonelela ngababoneleli bememori ngokukhula okuphezulu kwexesha elizayo.I-Micron, i-SK Hynix kunye ne-Samsung Electronics zonke zikhankanyile ukuvela kwabanye abaqhubi abatsha kwiingxelo zemali zekota yesithathu: amaziko edatha kunye neeseva ziya kuba ngamandla alandelayo okuqhuba kwimarike yememori.
Uluhlu oluphezulu
Isixhobo sombane esisisiseko sibandakanya ezi sistim zilandelayo, abenzi boluvo, iiprosesa, iinkumbulo kunye nee-actuator.Imemori inoxanduva lomsebenzi wememori yolwazi, enokuthi ihlulwe kwimemori (DRAM) kunye nememori ye-flash (NAND) ngokohlobo lwemveliso.Uhlobo lwemveliso eqhelekileyo ye-DRAM yeyona modyuli yenkumbulo.I-Flash inokubonwa kuyo yonke indawo ebomini, kubandakanywa ikhadi le-microSD, i-U disk, i-SSD (i-solid state disk), njl.
Imarike yememori igxile kakhulu.Ngokwedatha yeWorld Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organisation (WSTS), i-Samsung, iMicron kunye ne-SK Hynix kunye zenza malunga ne-94% yemarike ye-DRAM.Kwibala le-NAND Flash, i-Samsung, i-Armor Man, i-SK Hynix, i-Western Digital, i-Micron kunye ne-Intel kunye ne-akhawunti malunga ne-98%.
Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-TrendForce Jibang yokubonisana, amaxabiso e-DRAM awile yonke indlela ukususela ekuqaleni konyaka, kwaye ixabiso lekhontrakthi kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2022 liya kuwela ngaphezu kwe-10% kwikota nganye.Amaxabiso e-NAND nawo ancitshiswa ngakumbi.Kwikota yesithathu, ukuhla kunyuswe ukusuka kwi-15-20% ukuya kwi-30-35%.
Ngo-Oktobha 27, i-Samsung Electronics ikhuphe iziphumo zayo zekota yesithathu, ebonisa ukuba isebe le-semiconductor (DS) elijongene neshishini le-chip linengeniso ye-23.02 yetriliyoni ephumelele kwikota yesithathu, engaphantsi kokulindela abahlalutyi.Ingeniso yesebe elijongene neshishini logcino yi-15.23 yetriliyoni ephumeleleyo, yehle nge-28% ngenyanga kunye ne-27% ngonyaka.I-Samsung Electronics ibandakanya i-semiconductors, izixhobo zasekhaya, iiphaneli kunye nee-smartphones.
Inkampani yathi ubuthathaka bememori bufihla imeko ekhulayo yokusebenza ngokubanzi.Umyinge wengeniso yengeniso yehle nge-2.7%, kwaye umda wengeniso yokusebenza nawo wehle nge-4.1 ekhulwini ukuya kwi-14.1%.
Ngo-Okthobha wama-26, ingeniso ye-SK Hynix kwikota yesithathu yaba yi-10.98 yetriliyoni ephumeleleyo, kwaye inzuzo yayo yokusebenza yaba yi-1.66 yetriliyoni ephumeleleyo, kunye nentengiso kunye nenzuzo yokusebenza yehla nge-20.5% kunye ne-60.5% ngenyanga ngokulandelelanayo.Nge-29 kaSeptemba, iMicron, omnye umzi-mveliso omkhulu, yakhupha ingxelo yayo yezemali kwikota yesine ka-2022 (Juni ka-Agasti ka-2022).Ingeniso yayo yayiyi-US $ 6.64 yezigidigidi kuphela, phantsi kwe-23% ngenyanga ngenyanga kunye ne-20% ngonyaka.
AbakwaSamsung Electronics bathi ezona zizathu ziphambili zemfuno ebuthathaka ziingxaki zangoku eziqhubekayo kunye nohlengahlengiso loluhlu lwabathengi abahlangabezana nalo, elikhulu kunokuba bekulindelwe.Inkampani yaqaphela ukuba imarike yayinexhala malunga nenqanaba eliphezulu le-inventory ngenxa yobuthathaka beemveliso zememori.
I-Samsung Electronics ithe izama ukulawula uluhlu lwayo ukuya kwinqanaba elilinganayo.Ngaphezu koko, inqanaba le-inventory langoku alinakuphinda ligwetywe ngemigangatho edlulileyo, kuba abathengi bafumana ulungelelwaniso lwe-inventory, kwaye uluhlu lohlengahlengiso lugqithise ukulindela.
UJeffrey Mathews uthe kwixesha elidlulileyo, eqhutywa yi-periodicity yemarike yokugcina, abavelisi baphuthuma ukuhlangabezana nokubuyiswa kwemfuno kunye nokwandisa imveliso.Ngokuncipha kwemfuno yabathengi, unikezelo lwaye lwagqithisa ngokuthe ngcembe.Ngoku bajongene neengxaki zabo zoluhlu.
Ukukhanya kweMeguiar uthe phantse bonke abathengi abaphambili kwimarike yokugqibela benza uhlengahlengiso lwe-inventri.U-Sravan Kundojjala uxelele iintatheli ukuba okwangoku, abanye ababoneleli basayina izivumelwano zexesha elide kunye nabathengi, benethemba lokunciphisa iimveliso ezigqityiweyo kwi-inventory, kwaye bazama ukwenza ukuba uluhlu lwempahla luthathe indawo yokulinganisa naluphi na utshintsho kwimfuno.
Isicwangciso esilondolozayo
"Sisoloko sigxininisa ukulungiswa kweendleko ukwenza ulwakhiwo lweendleko luphakame kakhulu kunaye nawuphi na umntu okhuphisana naye, okuyindlela yokuqinisekisa inzuzo ezinzileyo ngoku".I-Samsung Electronics ikholelwa ukuba iimveliso zinexabiso elithambileyo, elinokuthi lisetyenziswe ukwenza imfuno ethile.Ngokuqinisekileyo, umphumo ulinganiselwe kakhulu, kwaye umgangatho wexabiso jikelele awukalawuleki.
U-SK Hynix uthe kwintlanganiso yengxelo yemali yekota yesithathu ukuba ukuze kwandiswe iindleko, inkampani yazama ukuphucula umlinganiselo wentengiso kunye nesivuno seemveliso ezintsha kwikota yesithathu, kodwa ukucutha ixabiso elibukhali kudlule kwiindleko ezincitshisiweyo, kunye nenzuzo yokusebenza nayo. yaliwe.
Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-TrendForce Jibang yokubonisana, ukukhutshwa kwememori ye-Samsung Electronics, i-SK Hynix kunye neMicron igcine kuphela ukukhula kwe-12-13% kulo nyaka.Ngo-2023, imveliso ye-Samsung Electronics iya kuhla nge-8%, i-SK Hynix nge-6.6%, kunye ne-Micron nge-4.3%.
Iifektri ezinkulu zilumkile kwinkcitho enkulu kunye nokwandiswa kwemveliso.I-SK Hynix yathi inkcitho yenkunzi yonyaka ozayo iya kuncipha ngaphezu kwe-50% ngonyaka, kwaye utyalo-mali lwalo nyaka kulindeleke ukuba lube malunga ne-10-20 yetriliyoni ephumeleleyo.IMicron ikwathe iyakunciphisa kakhulu inkcitho yayo enkulu kunyaka-mali ka-2023 kwaye yehlise izinga lokusetyenziswa kwezityalo.
I-TrendForce Jibang Consulting yathi ngokubhekiselele kwimemori, xa kuthelekiswa ne-Samsung Electronics 'Q4 2023 kunye ne-Q4 2022 izicwangciso zotyalo-mali, kuphela iziqwenga ze-40000 ziya kongezwa phakathi;U-SK Hynix wongeze iifilimu ezingama-20,000, ngelixa uMeguiar wayemodareyitha, enefilimu ezingama-5000 kuphela.Ukongeza, abavelisi baqale bakha izityalo ezintsha zeememori.Okwangoku, inkqubela phambili yezityalo ihambela phambili, kodwa imeko iyonke ihlehlisiwe.
I-Samsung Electronics inethemba malunga nokwandiswa kwemveliso.Inkampani yathi iya kuqhubeka nokugcina umgangatho ofanelekileyo wotyalo-mali lweziseko ezingundoqo ukuhlangabezana nemfuno ephakathi kunye neyexesha elide, kodwa utyalo-mali lwayo kwizixhobo luya kuba bhetyebhetye ngakumbi.Nangona imfuno yemarike yangoku iyancipha, inkampani kufuneka ilungiselele ukubuyiswa kwemfuno kwixesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide ukusuka kumbono weqhinga, ngoko ke inkampani ayiyi kunciphisa imveliso ukuze ihlangabezane nokubonelela kwexesha elifutshane kunye nebhalansi yemfuno.
UJeffrey Mathews uthe ukuncitshiswa kwenkcitho kunye nemveliso kuya kuchaphazela uphando kunye nophuhliso lwetekhnoloji ephezulu yabavelisi, kwaye isantya sokunyuka ukuya kwiindawo eziphambili ziya kucotha, ngoko ke ukuncitshiswa kweendleko ezincinci (iindleko ezincinci) kuya kucotha.
Ndijonge phambili kunyaka ozayo
Abavelisi abahlukeneyo bachaza imarike yememori ngokwahlukileyo.Ngokwecandelo le-terminal, amandla amathathu okuqhuba imemori ziifowuni ezihlakaniphile, iiPC kunye neeseva.
I-TrendForce Jibang Consulting iqikelela ukuba isabelo semakethi yememori evela kwiiseva iya kukhula ukuya kwi-36% ngo-2023, kufutshane nesabelo seefowuni eziphathwayo.Imemori ephathwayo esetyenziselwa iifowuni eziphathwayo inesithuba esincinci sokunyuka, esinokuncitshiswa ukusuka kwi-38.5% yokuqala ukuya kwi-37.3%.I-elektroniki yabathengi kwimarike yememori ye-flash iya kuba buthathaka, kunye neefowuni ze-smart zikhula nge-2.8% kunye neelaptops zehla nge-8-9%.
U-Liu Jiahao, umphathi wophando we-Jibang Consulting, wathi kwi-"2022 Jibang Consulting Semiconductor Summit and Storage Industry Summit" ngo-Oktobha 12 ukuba uphuhliso lwememori lunokwahlulwa lube yimikhosi emininzi ebalulekileyo yokuqhubela phambili, eqhutywa yi-laptops ukusuka kwi-2008 ukuya kwi-2011;Ngo-2012, kunye nokuthandwa kwezixhobo ezihlakaniphile ezifana neefowuni eziphathwayo kunye neetafile, kwaye ziqhutywa yi-Intanethi, ezi zixhobo zathatha indawo yeelaptops njengeyona nto iqhuba ukutsala imemori;Ngethuba le-2016-2019, izicelo ze-Intanethi ziye zanda ngakumbi, amaseva kunye namaziko edatha abaluleke kakhulu njengeziseko zedijithali, kwaye ukugcinwa kuye kwaqala ukuba nomfutho omtsha.
UJeffrey Mathews uthe umjikelo wokugqibela wokudodobala kwenkumbulo kwenzeka ngo-2019, kuba imfuno yee-smartphones, eyona ntengiso inkulu yesiphelo, yehlile.Ngelo xesha, ikhonkco lokubonelela laqokelela inani elikhulu loluhlu, imfuno yabavelisi beefowuni ze-smart yahla, kwaye i-NAND kunye ne-DRAM ASP (ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lokuthengisa) kwii-smartphones nazo zafumana ukuhla kweedijithi ezimbini.
U-Liu Jiahao uthe ngexesha elisusela kwi-2020 ukuya ku-2022, imeko ye-bhubhane, ukuguqulwa kwedijithali, ubuthathaka bomthengi we-elektroniki kunye nezinye izinto eziguquguqukayo zavela, kwaye imfuno yoshishino ye-computing ephezulu yayinamandla kunangaphambili.I-Intanethi eninzi kunye nabavelisi be-IT baye babeka amaziko edatha, nto leyo eye yaqhuba uphuhliso oluthe ngcembe lwedijithali kwilifu.Imfuno yokugcina iiseva iya kucaca ngakumbi.Nangona isabelo semarike yangoku sisencinci, iziko ledatha kunye neeseva ziya kuba ngabaqhubi abaphambili beemarike zokugcina ngexesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide.
I-Samsung Electronics iya kongeza iimveliso kwiiseva kunye namaziko edatha kwi-2023. I-Samsung Electronics yathi, ngokuqwalasela utyalo-mali kwiziseko ezingundoqo ezifana ne-AI kunye ne-5G, imfuno yeemveliso ze-DRAM ezivela kwiiseva ziya kuhlala zizinzile kunyaka ozayo.
USravan Kundojjala uthe uninzi lwababoneleli bafuna ukunciphisa ukugxila kwabo kwiPC kunye neentengiso ze-smartphone.Kwangaxeshanye, iziko ledatha, iimoto, ishishini, ubukrelekrele bokwenziwa kunye neenkalo zenethiwekhi zibonelela ngamathuba okukhula.
UJeffrey Mathews uthe ngenxa yenkqubela phambili eqhubekayo yetekhnoloji yememori ukuya kwiindawo eziphambili, ukusebenza kwe-NAND kunye neemveliso ze-DRAM kulindeleke ukuba kufezekiswe isizukulwana esilandelayo.Kulindeleke ukuba imfuno yeemakethi eziphambili zokuphela ezifana neziko ledatha, izixhobo kunye ne-edge computing ziya kukhula ngamandla, ngoko ke ababoneleli baqhuba iphothifoliyo yemveliso yememori.Ekuhambeni kwexesha, kuyathenjwa ukuba ababoneleli beenkumbulo baya kuba nokulumka ekwandiseni umthamo kunye nokugcina unikezelo olungqongqo kunye noqeqesho lwamaxabiso.
Ixesha lokuposa: Nov-05-2022